Contract performance: Nick Suzuki once again (rather) misjudged by The Athletic

Manuel Sperandio-Lemay
Contract performance: Nick Suzuki once again (rather) misjudged by The Athletic

Every year, Dom Luszczyszyn isthe talk of The Athletic. And why? Because of his use of statistical models to compare different NHL contracts.

The problem, as in the NHL, isn't the use of statistical data: it's forgetting the rest. And often, even when (small) nuances are made in the texts, Luszczyszyn fallsin line behind his model.

The model is interesting when you use it to add evidence to your thinking, but it has its flaws.

For example? When we see that Nick Suzuki, last year, was ranked among the 10 worst contracts in the entire NHL. We all remember that one, don't we?

That's why this year's rankings were eagerly awaited.

In evaluating the contracts of each team, we note that the Canadiens have dropped from 32nd to 26th this season. And the model likes Nick Suzuki a little better, but not that much.

Basically, the analyst takes the amount each player should earn and compares it to the amount they do earn. The difference is multiplied by the number of years remaining on the contract.

This means that Nick Suzuki, who earns around $1.3 million too much according to the model, will earn around $8.8 million too much over the next seven years.

Let's say it's true that Suzuki earns a bit too much. The fact that he only has a 38% chance of progressing to the point where the CH could get into his money is very unfair, in my eyes.

And why is that? Because the ceiling will go up. Because he's young. Because he wasn't surrounded last year. Look how good he was with Sean Monahan on the second line last year…

I also think it's perhaps unfair to say that Suzuki only accumulated “empty-calorie” points, since all the CH's points this year were like that.

Again, that's because Suzuki was the only one.

I understand that just looking at his stats, he may not want $7.875M for sure, but as a captain and #1 center, his impact simply exceeds what's happening on the board.

But hey. A guy in that mold brings more than just points.

What we notice, by the way, in The Athletic's model, is that every contract (or almost every contract) acquired or signed by Kent Hughes is currently in the green for contribution versus salary.

Marc Bergevin's? In the red.

(Credit: The Athletic)

The only exceptions? Rem Pitlick (for what it's worth) and Chris Wideman (for what it's worth) are in the red. Otherwise, the skater contracts awarded by the former administration are not the ones that offer the best return.

The contracts of Mike Matheson and Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (who ranks much higher than I thought) are among the CH's best, according to the model.


In gusto

– There's a lot going on in the MLB.

– It's a done deal.

– Logical.

– Ouch.

– Serge Beausoleil hires his son.

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